Coverage across South Asia, the Middle East, and the Gulf — with probabilistic forecasting, multi-source evidentiary standards, and a public calibration record.
Brier scores with Murphy decomposition — Reliability, Resolution, and Uncertainty reported separately. Not a single headline number.
Outcomes can't be recorded without two independent sources and a structured lessons row. Policy is a commitment. A database trigger is a constraint.
Calibration visualized using the pool-adjacent-violators method from Dimitriadis, Gneiting & Jordan (2021). Reproducible and auditable.
A 3,000-word brief on calibrated forecasting in geopolitical intelligence — what calibration means, why incumbents don't publish their numbers, and how this platform is different.